Obama has won the elections. According to socionomic theory, it was expected because the agggregate mood of the population as reflected by the stock market has been up for 4 years now. In the wake of the Presidential election, the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) reports that the study, "Social Mood, Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections" has earned the #3 spot among the most-downloaded papers in the past 12 months.
The SSRN eLibrary is one of the world's leading social science resources and includes 430,000 paper abstracts from 200,000 authors. It has delivered close to 56 million downloads, and last year it received over 66,000 new submissions. Among those submissions: the elections paper written by a team from the Socionomics Institute.
Authored by Robert R. Prechter, Jr., Deepak Goel, Wayne D. Parker and Matthew Lampert, the study amounted to a bold challenge to conventional wisdom about the factors that predict presidential re-election outcomes.
"We demonstrated a counter-intuitive point about what matters, what doesn't and why" Prechter said about a FREE VIDEO.
"GDP was a significant predictor in some of the simple models," said Deepak Goel, "but it was rendered insignificant when we combined it with the stock market in multiple regression analyses. Inflation and unemployment had no predictive value in any of our tests." So what does matter?
Historians and political scientists have long argued that gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment and inflation have great bearing on presidential elections. So Prechter et.al. tested those ideas. They studied every presidential re-election campaign dating back to George Washington's successful bid in 1792. And what they found was amazing.
The stock market. Specifically, they found that the stock market's performance for the three years prior to Election Day does predict elections. But an even bigger finding came when they examined the question of whether or not money made or lost in the market had any effect.
"We contrasted eras when stocks were widely owned vs. hardly owned, and there was no difference in results," Robert Prechter said.
They ruled out GDP, unemployment, inflation and money made or lost in the market as factors. That left only one. Matt Lampert explained:
"The best explanation is that the trend of social mood is important in driving the valuations of both stocks and presidents."
You can read more on social mood and it's effect on economy, politcs and culture at this Kondratieff Wave website and understand the mechanics of Inflation and Deflation in a credit based economy that is ruled by human emotions that shows predictable behavior at aggregate level.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Saturday, October 27, 2012
OIL is Falling Despite the Printing Press
Despite today's less-than-stellar global economic environment, as
recently as April, crude was trading well over $100 a barrel. Then Bernanke said he would keep printing money indefinately until economy gets better (in other words until prices go up). Can the printing press really stop Kondratieff Winter? Can Bernanke's newly minted dollars warm us up to borrow and spend again?
After a 4-day losing streak, on October 23 crude oil futures fell as low as $85.69 a barrel -- the lowest price since July.
Predictably, the mainstream energy market observers have blamed the drop on "global economic worries." Of course, we have pointed out before how, on one recent occasion, oil fell in the face of positive economic expectations. And on another recent occasion, oil fell despite the absence of any real news, period. Fundamentals, news, events do not determine the prices in financial markets. It is something else: Social mood drives markets.
So, the mainstream analysts have to do better than "global economic worries" to explain the latest oil selloff...except that they can't.
See, in the world of "fundamental" analysis, markets always react to something. If it's not A, then it's B; and if not B, then it's C. "Action" outside the markets produces a "reaction" inside them. So it's simply inconceivable for a conventional analyst to suggest anything other than an outside factor -- the handy "global economic worries," in this case -- to pin the October 23 selloff on.
Fine...except, doesn't every day now bring some 'concern about global economic growth'?
Europe has been dealing with the debt crisis for several years now; China's economy has been cooling off; and right here in the U.S. -- well, every month it's been hit and miss with various economic indicators, from unemployment to manufacturing to consumer confidence.
One could argue that in this environment, oil prices should be half of what they are today. But they aren't. In fact, as recently as April, crude was trading well over $100 a barrel.
When it's all said and done, you have to accept the fact: To get serious about forecasting the future trend in crude, you have to consider something other than the proverbial "fundamentals." Elliott wave analysis provides a real alternative.
By studying price charts, wave analysis tracks and measures the changes in the market's collective psychology. After all, what moves market prices but the market participants? If you can forecast their bias, bullish or bearish, you can reasonably forecast the market. And right now can you see how EWI Founder and President Robert Prechter views the common argument over "peak oil" for free.
After a 4-day losing streak, on October 23 crude oil futures fell as low as $85.69 a barrel -- the lowest price since July.
Predictably, the mainstream energy market observers have blamed the drop on "global economic worries." Of course, we have pointed out before how, on one recent occasion, oil fell in the face of positive economic expectations. And on another recent occasion, oil fell despite the absence of any real news, period. Fundamentals, news, events do not determine the prices in financial markets. It is something else: Social mood drives markets.
So, the mainstream analysts have to do better than "global economic worries" to explain the latest oil selloff...except that they can't.
See, in the world of "fundamental" analysis, markets always react to something. If it's not A, then it's B; and if not B, then it's C. "Action" outside the markets produces a "reaction" inside them. So it's simply inconceivable for a conventional analyst to suggest anything other than an outside factor -- the handy "global economic worries," in this case -- to pin the October 23 selloff on.
Fine...except, doesn't every day now bring some 'concern about global economic growth'?
Europe has been dealing with the debt crisis for several years now; China's economy has been cooling off; and right here in the U.S. -- well, every month it's been hit and miss with various economic indicators, from unemployment to manufacturing to consumer confidence.
One could argue that in this environment, oil prices should be half of what they are today. But they aren't. In fact, as recently as April, crude was trading well over $100 a barrel.
When it's all said and done, you have to accept the fact: To get serious about forecasting the future trend in crude, you have to consider something other than the proverbial "fundamentals." Elliott wave analysis provides a real alternative.
By studying price charts, wave analysis tracks and measures the changes in the market's collective psychology. After all, what moves market prices but the market participants? If you can forecast their bias, bullish or bearish, you can reasonably forecast the market. And right now can you see how EWI Founder and President Robert Prechter views the common argument over "peak oil" for free.
 |
Free Oil Report from Robert Prechter In July 2008, when crude oil prices were at $148 a barrel and "peak oil" bulls were forecasting a rise to $200, even $300 a barrel, contrarian technical analyst Robert Prechter took the opposite stance: "One of the greatest commodity tops of all time is due very soon." Six months later, a barrel of oil cost just $32. Now, you can read Prechter's big-picture outlook on the oil markets in a newly released report. Follow this link to download Prechter's 26-page oil report now |
Saturday, February 18, 2012
US Dollar Big Picture
More credit is denominated in U.S. dollars than any other currency. What does this mean for the value of the dollar as the credit crisis continues its strangle-hold on the world economies?
Enjoy this video clip of Bob Prechter from an October interview with The Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell, in which Bob discusses the debt implosion and the value of the U.S. dollar.
You can watch Prechter's full 45-minute interview here -- no sign up required!
Enjoy this video clip of Bob Prechter from an October interview with The Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell, in which Bob discusses the debt implosion and the value of the U.S. dollar.
You can watch Prechter's full 45-minute interview here -- no sign up required!
Thursday, January 12, 2012
How will the stocks do in 2012?
A new year has started, and there are new high hopes for the stock market, as you can see in this December 21, 2011 headline from USA Today:
Strategists predict a glowing 2012
The article notes that a "quick survey of New Year's prognostications from investment strategists suggests stocks might deliver the double-digit gains that they have put up, on average, over the long term. A snapshot of 2012 year-end-price targets from five firms shows an average gain of 10.5% for stocks."
But, haven't we heard this before?
The 10.5% gains forecasted for the coming year is intriguing considering it is almost exactly the average gains that were forecasted for stocks in 2011. Take this Barron's cover story from December 2010 as a prime example:
OUTLOOK 2011: Our panel of savvy Wall Street strategists expects stocks to rise 10% next year, as an economic expansion takes hold.
But as you know, in 2011 we essentially had a flat market. The DJIA ended up 5.53% for the year, the S&P was flat...while the NASDAQ was down 1.80%. The broadest aggregate measure of stock market performance, the DJ Wilshire 5000, which includes nearly all stocks that trade, ended 2011 down 1%.
And the Dow's action masks a strongly negative stock market performance in the overseas markets.
So, how should you plan for 2012? What's really ahead for the markets, and what does it mean for your portfolio? Will the European credit crisis and U.S. debt debacle continue to loom over the markets or will the economic expansion actually take hold?
Elliott Wave International has just released a free report that will help you navigate the year ahead. You'll get all of the indicators that they have been analyzing over the past year, with 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary to help you see where we've been and what's ahead.
Download your free report now: What will the stock market do in 2012?
Strategists predict a glowing 2012
The article notes that a "quick survey of New Year's prognostications from investment strategists suggests stocks might deliver the double-digit gains that they have put up, on average, over the long term. A snapshot of 2012 year-end-price targets from five firms shows an average gain of 10.5% for stocks."
But, haven't we heard this before?
The 10.5% gains forecasted for the coming year is intriguing considering it is almost exactly the average gains that were forecasted for stocks in 2011. Take this Barron's cover story from December 2010 as a prime example:
OUTLOOK 2011: Our panel of savvy Wall Street strategists expects stocks to rise 10% next year, as an economic expansion takes hold.
But as you know, in 2011 we essentially had a flat market. The DJIA ended up 5.53% for the year, the S&P was flat...while the NASDAQ was down 1.80%. The broadest aggregate measure of stock market performance, the DJ Wilshire 5000, which includes nearly all stocks that trade, ended 2011 down 1%.
And the Dow's action masks a strongly negative stock market performance in the overseas markets.
So, how should you plan for 2012? What's really ahead for the markets, and what does it mean for your portfolio? Will the European credit crisis and U.S. debt debacle continue to loom over the markets or will the economic expansion actually take hold?
Elliott Wave International has just released a free report that will help you navigate the year ahead. You'll get all of the indicators that they have been analyzing over the past year, with 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary to help you see where we've been and what's ahead.
Download your free report now: What will the stock market do in 2012?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)